New study: 15 percent autonomous cars by 2030
McKinsey report predicts profound changes for the automotive industry.
A 2016 study by consulting firm McKinsey has found that self-driving cars could account for 15 percent of all new cars sold at the end of the next decade, once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved.
The report asserts that this predicted increase goes hand in hand with fundamental changes the auto industry will undergo. Software, for instance, will play a much more vital role in future automated cars, "becoming one of the most important differentiating factors for the industry," as the report states.
Smart features which make driving more comfortable are expected to increase the demand for autonomous vehicles. Those vehicles "present a tremendous value offering for consumers (e.g., ability to work while commuting, convenience of using social media, or resting while travelling)," the report concludes.
Moreover, McKinsey expects a sea change in business models and in the way people access mobility. The market experts assume that by 2030, up to one out of ten new cars will likely be a shared vehicle, which means that these cars would not be owned by individual drivers but, for instance, service companies.
For 2050, the study predicts that one out of three new cars sold may be shared. At a larger scale, the authors see a decline in private car ownership, with shared mobility increasing. Nevertheless, the report also states that total car unit sales may increase at a rate of two percent per year.